๐Ÿ”„ Sector Rotation

Where money is moving between GICS sectors, and which sectors are stretched.

Week ending
2026-10-16
67 weeks analysed
Market, last week
0.03%
equal-weighted universe
Market, 13 weeks
-4.76%
the backdrop for every excess figure
Coverage
11 sectors
1010 of 1020 constituents
Rotation quadrant โ€” relative strength vs its momentum
IMPROVING LEADING LAGGING WEAKENING Consumer Staples โ€” Leading (RS 103.8, momentum 105.9) STPL Energy โ€” Leading (RS 102.6, momentum 101.0) ENGY Consumer Discretionary โ€” Improving (RS 99.3, momentum 102.8) DISC Utilities โ€” Leading (RS 100.5, momentum 102.2) UTIL Health Care โ€” Weakening (RS 103.0, momentum 99.5) HLTH Real Estate โ€” Improving (RS 97.6, momentum 102.3) REIT Financials โ€” Leading (RS 100.2, momentum 100.6) FIN Materials โ€” Improving (RS 97.9, momentum 102.6) MATL Industrials โ€” Improving (RS 98.5, momentum 100.2) INDU Communication Services โ€” Improving (RS 97.7, momentum 100.4) COMM Information Technology โ€” Lagging (RS 99.9, momentum 96.2) TECH
Money tends to travel Improving โ†’ Leading โ†’ Weakening โ†’ Lagging. A sector top of the table but drifting left is late; one still behind the market but climbing is where the next leadership usually starts.
๐Ÿ”ฅ Overbought

No sector is stretched to the upside right now.

๐ŸงŠ Oversold
Real Estate Leaning washed out
RSI 39 ยท -0.8ฯƒ from its year ยท 17% of members above trend
Communication Services Leaning washed out
RSI 37 ยท -2.0ฯƒ from its year ยท 28% of members above trend
How stretched is judged. Three measurements vote: weekly RSI (momentum), distance from the sector's own 52-week mean (position), and breadth โ€” the share of members above their own 10-week average (participation). Two or more agreeing marks a sector stretched. A single RSI reading is not enough: a sector in a genuine uptrend can sit above 70 for months, and selling it every time is a losing habit.
Sector ranking โ€” by average weekly return against the market over 4 weeks. Click a row for the detail.
# ฮ” Sector N Avg wk vs mkt 1w 4w 13w 52w Quadrant RSI ฯƒ Breadth Pressure
1 โ–ฒ4 Consumer Staples 57 1.18% 4.7% 4.7% -2.8% 6.3% Leading 53 0.1 60% Neutral

Consumer Staples averaged +1.18% a week over the last 4 weeks against the market's pace, leaving it ahead. Relative strength is 103.8 with momentum 105.9, which puts it in the Leading quadrant. Weekly RSI is 53, it sits +0.1 standard deviations from its own year, and 60% of its 57 members are above their 10-week average โ€” neutral.

  • RANKING: +1.176% average weekly excess return over 4 weeks (sector +1.182% a week against the market's pace)
  • RETURNS: +4.73% 1w ยท +4.73% 4w ยท -2.75% 13w ยท +6.28% 52w
  • EXCESS: +4.70% 1w ยท +4.70% 4w ยท +2.02% 13w ยท -5.49% 52w vs the equal-weighted market
  • QUADRANT: RS-Ratio 103.8, RS-Momentum 105.9 โ€” Leading. Ahead of the market and still gaining. The crowded trade โ€” right until it isn't.
  • MOMENTUM: weekly RSI 53 (neutral)
  • POSITION: +0.07 standard deviations from its 52-week mean; -8.2% below the 52-week high and 4.8% above the low
  • BREADTH: 60% of 57 members above their own 10-week average (neutral)
  • PRESSURE: Neutral โ€” Nothing extreme in either direction.
Leaders (4w)
ELF 17.7%
CASY 15.3%
LW 14.8%
EL 11.9%
BJ 11.9%
Laggards (4w)
GIS -8.8%
SEB -8.2%
BG -8.2%
SFM -7.9%
DAR -6.1%
2 โ–ฒ7 Energy 35 0.94% 3.8% 3.8% -0.7% 45.0% Leading 62 1.1 71% Neutral

Energy averaged +0.94% a week over the last 4 weeks against the market's pace, leaving it ahead. Relative strength is 102.6 with momentum 101.0, which puts it in the Leading quadrant. Weekly RSI is 62, it sits +1.1 standard deviations from its own year, and 71% of its 35 members are above their 10-week average โ€” neutral.

  • RANKING: +0.941% average weekly excess return over 4 weeks (sector +0.947% a week against the market's pace)
  • RETURNS: +3.79% 1w ยท +3.79% 4w ยท -0.68% 13w ยท +44.95% 52w
  • EXCESS: +3.76% 1w ยท +3.76% 4w ยท +4.08% 13w ยท +33.18% 52w vs the equal-weighted market
  • QUADRANT: RS-Ratio 102.6, RS-Momentum 101.0 โ€” Leading. Ahead of the market and still gaining. The crowded trade โ€” right until it isn't.
  • MOMENTUM: weekly RSI 62 (neutral)
  • POSITION: +1.11 standard deviations from its 52-week mean; -2.1% below the 52-week high and 46.6% above the low
  • BREADTH: 71% of 35 members above their own 10-week average (neutral)
  • PRESSURE: Neutral โ€” Nothing extreme in either direction.
Leaders (4w)
MPC 12.5%
RRC 12.4%
OVV 11.2%
COP 11.1%
AR 10.9%
Laggards (4w)
WFRD -7.1%
NOV -5.7%
FTI -3.3%
SLB -3.2%
BKR -2.7%
3 โ–ฒ1 Consumer Discretionary 123 0.56% 2.3% 2.3% -5.3% 0.5% Improving 44 -0.8 37% Neutral

Consumer Discretionary averaged +0.56% a week over the last 4 weeks against the market's pace, leaving it ahead. Relative strength is 99.3 with momentum 102.8, which puts it in the Improving quadrant. Weekly RSI is 44, it sits -0.8 standard deviations from its own year, and 37% of its 123 members are above their 10-week average โ€” neutral.

  • RANKING: +0.562% average weekly excess return over 4 weeks (sector +0.568% a week against the market's pace)
  • RETURNS: +2.27% 1w ยท +2.27% 4w ยท -5.26% 13w ยท +0.52% 52w
  • EXCESS: +2.25% 1w ยท +2.25% 4w ยท -0.50% 13w ยท -11.25% 52w vs the equal-weighted market
  • QUADRANT: RS-Ratio 99.3, RS-Momentum 102.8 โ€” Improving. Behind the market but gaining on it. Where the next leadership usually starts.
  • MOMENTUM: weekly RSI 44 (neutral)
  • POSITION: -0.80 standard deviations from its 52-week mean; -9.6% below the 52-week high and 5.6% above the low
  • BREADTH: 37% of 123 members above their own 10-week average (neutral)
  • PRESSURE: Neutral โ€” Nothing extreme in either direction.
Leaders (4w)
VFC 31.7%
MAT 29.7%
ONON 27.5%
WING 26.6%
OLLI 22.9%
Laggards (4w)
MGM -24.4%
LCID -23.5%
MRP -22.1%
QS -20.2%
RIVN -17.1%
4 โ–ฒ2 Utilities 40 0.47% 1.9% 1.9% -2.7% 1.2% Leading 47 -0.5 68% Neutral

Utilities averaged +0.47% a week over the last 4 weeks against the market's pace, leaving it ahead. Relative strength is 100.6 with momentum 102.2, which puts it in the Leading quadrant. Weekly RSI is 47, it sits -0.5 standard deviations from its own year, and 68% of its 40 members are above their 10-week average โ€” neutral.

  • RANKING: +0.470% average weekly excess return over 4 weeks (sector +0.476% a week against the market's pace)
  • RETURNS: +1.90% 1w ยท +1.90% 4w ยท -2.73% 13w ยท +1.16% 52w
  • EXCESS: +1.88% 1w ยท +1.88% 4w ยท +2.04% 13w ยท -10.61% 52w vs the equal-weighted market
  • QUADRANT: RS-Ratio 100.6, RS-Momentum 102.2 โ€” Leading. Ahead of the market and still gaining. The crowded trade โ€” right until it isn't.
  • MOMENTUM: weekly RSI 47 (neutral)
  • POSITION: -0.50 standard deviations from its 52-week mean; -7.1% below the 52-week high and 4.7% above the low
  • BREADTH: 68% of 40 members above their own 10-week average (neutral)
  • PRESSURE: Neutral โ€” Nothing extreme in either direction.
Leaders (4w)
TLN 21.4%
PNW 9.8%
VST 8.1%
SO 6.6%
CEG 6.5%
Laggards (4w)
BEPC -4.2%
CWEN -2.9%
ES -1.3%
NFG -1.2%
NEE -0.8%
5 โ–ผ3 Health Care 106 0.32% 1.3% 1.3% 1.1% 13.7% Weakening 65 1.3 58% Neutral

Health Care averaged +0.32% a week over the last 4 weeks against the market's pace, leaving it ahead. Relative strength is 103.0 with momentum 99.5, which puts it in the Weakening quadrant. Weekly RSI is 65, it sits +1.3 standard deviations from its own year, and 58% of its 106 members are above their 10-week average โ€” neutral.

  • RANKING: +0.320% average weekly excess return over 4 weeks (sector +0.326% a week against the market's pace)
  • RETURNS: +1.30% 1w ยท +1.30% 4w ยท +1.08% 13w ยท +13.71% 52w
  • EXCESS: +1.28% 1w ยท +1.28% 4w ยท +5.85% 13w ยท +1.94% 52w vs the equal-weighted market
  • QUADRANT: RS-Ratio 103.0, RS-Momentum 99.5 โ€” Weakening. Still ahead of the market but losing momentum. Where leadership goes to end.
  • MOMENTUM: weekly RSI 65 (neutral)
  • POSITION: +1.33 standard deviations from its 52-week mean; -0.5% below the 52-week high and 21.9% above the low
  • BREADTH: 58% of 106 members above their own 10-week average (neutral)
  • PRESSURE: Neutral โ€” Nothing extreme in either direction.
Leaders (4w)
MRNA 41.5%
PRGO 22.6%
VEEV 19.3%
DOCS 18.6%
MTD 16.5%
Laggards (4w)
AXSM -24.4%
INSM -19.8%
SMMT -18.0%
TEM -16.9%
ARWR -15.9%
6 โ–ฒ4 Real Estate 64 0.30% 1.2% 1.2% -7.3% -0.8% Improving 39 -0.8 17% Leaning washed out

Real Estate averaged +0.30% a week over the last 4 weeks against the market's pace, leaving it ahead. Relative strength is 97.6 with momentum 102.3, which puts it in the Improving quadrant. Weekly RSI is 39, it sits -0.8 standard deviations from its own year, and 17% of its 64 members are above their 10-week average โ€” leaning washed out.

  • RANKING: +0.303% average weekly excess return over 4 weeks (sector +0.310% a week against the market's pace)
  • RETURNS: +1.24% 1w ยท +1.24% 4w ยท -7.33% 13w ยท -0.82% 52w
  • EXCESS: +1.21% 1w ยท +1.21% 4w ยท -2.56% 13w ยท -12.59% 52w vs the equal-weighted market
  • QUADRANT: RS-Ratio 97.6, RS-Momentum 102.3 โ€” Improving. Behind the market but gaining on it. Where the next leadership usually starts.
  • MOMENTUM: weekly RSI 39 (neutral)
  • POSITION: -0.76 standard deviations from its 52-week mean; -9.0% below the 52-week high and 7.1% above the low
  • BREADTH: 17% of 64 members above their own 10-week average (depressed)
  • PRESSURE: Leaning washed out โ€” One measure is depressed. Weak, not yet washed out.
Leaders (4w)
HHH 14.1%
CCI 12.6%
CSGP 11.1%
HST 9.8%
AMT 6.5%
Laggards (4w)
FRMI -36.5%
ARE -21.9%
MPT -11.5%
LINE -9.6%
JLL -9.2%
7 โ–ฒ4 Financials 157 0.24% 1.0% 1.0% -6.0% 4.9% Leading 45 0.1 34% Neutral

Financials averaged +0.24% a week over the last 4 weeks against the market's pace, leaving it ahead. Relative strength is 100.3 with momentum 100.6, which puts it in the Leading quadrant. Weekly RSI is 45, it sits +0.1 standard deviations from its own year, and 34% of its 157 members are above their 10-week average โ€” neutral.

  • RANKING: +0.244% average weekly excess return over 4 weeks (sector +0.250% a week against the market's pace)
  • RETURNS: +1.00% 1w ยท +1.00% 4w ยท -6.05% 13w ยท +4.94% 52w
  • EXCESS: +0.97% 1w ยท +0.97% 4w ยท -1.29% 13w ยท -6.83% 52w vs the equal-weighted market
  • QUADRANT: RS-Ratio 100.3, RS-Momentum 100.6 โ€” Leading. Ahead of the market and still gaining. The crowded trade โ€” right until it isn't.
  • MOMENTUM: weekly RSI 45 (neutral)
  • POSITION: +0.07 standard deviations from its 52-week mean; -6.1% below the 52-week high and 12.7% above the low
  • BREADTH: 34% of 157 members above their own 10-week average (neutral)
  • PRESSURE: Neutral โ€” Nothing extreme in either direction.
Leaders (4w)
XP 46.1%
CBOE 15.4%
KMPR 10.5%
FRHC 10.4%
V 9.3%
Laggards (4w)
FIGR -23.6%
BLSH -23.1%
HOOD -17.5%
STWD -16.6%
UWMC -16.0%
8 โ€“ Materials 59 0.20% 0.8% 0.8% -7.2% 14.3% Improving 36 -1.0 30% Neutral

Materials averaged +0.20% a week over the last 4 weeks against the market's pace, leaving it ahead. Relative strength is 97.9 with momentum 102.6, which puts it in the Improving quadrant. Weekly RSI is 36, it sits -1.0 standard deviations from its own year, and 31% of its 59 members are above their 10-week average โ€” neutral.

  • RANKING: +0.200% average weekly excess return over 4 weeks (sector +0.207% a week against the market's pace)
  • RETURNS: +0.83% 1w ยท +0.83% 4w ยท -7.17% 13w ยท +14.29% 52w
  • EXCESS: +0.80% 1w ยท +0.80% 4w ยท -2.40% 13w ยท +2.52% 52w vs the equal-weighted market
  • QUADRANT: RS-Ratio 97.9, RS-Momentum 102.6 โ€” Improving. Behind the market but gaining on it. Where the next leadership usually starts.
  • MOMENTUM: weekly RSI 36 (neutral)
  • POSITION: -0.97 standard deviations from its 52-week mean; -13.2% below the 52-week high and 8.8% above the low
  • BREADTH: 31% of 59 members above their own 10-week average (neutral)
  • PRESSURE: Neutral โ€” Nothing extreme in either direction.
Leaders (4w)
VVV 17.6%
IFF 9.3%
LIN 8.3%
LPX 7.2%
ECL 7.2%
Laggards (4w)
FMC -43.9%
ALM -29.0%
MOS -23.1%
CDE -21.7%
MP -15.0%
9 โ–ผ6 Industrials 169 -0.06% -0.2% -0.2% -4.7% 14.2% Improving 40 -0.2 23% Neutral

Industrials averaged -0.06% a week over the last 4 weeks against the market's pace, leaving it behind. Relative strength is 98.4 with momentum 100.2, which puts it in the Improving quadrant. Weekly RSI is 40, it sits -0.2 standard deviations from its own year, and 23% of its 169 members are above their 10-week average โ€” neutral.

  • RANKING: -0.062% average weekly excess return over 4 weeks (sector -0.056% a week against the market's pace)
  • RETURNS: -0.22% 1w ยท -0.22% 4w ยท -4.68% 13w ยท +14.20% 52w
  • EXCESS: -0.25% 1w ยท -0.25% 4w ยท +0.09% 13w ยท +2.43% 52w vs the equal-weighted market
  • QUADRANT: RS-Ratio 98.4, RS-Momentum 100.2 โ€” Improving. Behind the market but gaining on it. Where the next leadership usually starts.
  • MOMENTUM: weekly RSI 40 (neutral)
  • POSITION: -0.24 standard deviations from its 52-week mean; -7.1% below the 52-week high and 9.9% above the low
  • BREADTH: 23% of 169 members above their own 10-week average (neutral)
  • PRESSURE: Neutral โ€” Nothing extreme in either direction.
Leaders (4w)
EXLS 12.4%
LYFT 11.4%
G 9.1%
VRSK 8.8%
ODFL 8.5%
Laggards (4w)
MAN -28.0%
AVAV -23.9%
RKLB -21.3%
VRT -17.2%
BE -16.7%
10 โ–ผ3 Communication Services 50 -0.16% -0.6% -0.6% -7.6% -2.1% Improving 37 -2.0 28% Leaning washed out

Communication Services averaged -0.16% a week over the last 4 weeks against the market's pace, leaving it behind. Relative strength is 97.7 with momentum 100.4, which puts it in the Improving quadrant. Weekly RSI is 37, it sits -2.0 standard deviations from its own year, and 28% of its 50 members are above their 10-week average โ€” leaning washed out.

  • RANKING: -0.159% average weekly excess return over 4 weeks (sector -0.152% a week against the market's pace)
  • RETURNS: -0.61% 1w ยท -0.61% 4w ยท -7.59% 13w ยท -2.11% 52w
  • EXCESS: -0.64% 1w ยท -0.64% 4w ยท -2.83% 13w ยท -13.88% 52w vs the equal-weighted market
  • QUADRANT: RS-Ratio 97.7, RS-Momentum 100.4 โ€” Improving. Behind the market but gaining on it. Where the next leadership usually starts.
  • MOMENTUM: weekly RSI 37 (neutral)
  • POSITION: -1.97 standard deviations from its 52-week mean; -12.1% below the 52-week high and 0.0% above the low
  • BREADTH: 28% of 50 members above their own 10-week average (neutral)
  • PRESSURE: Leaning washed out โ€” One measure is depressed. Weak, not yet washed out.
Leaders (4w)
LBRDK 24.7%
LBRDA 24.7%
PINS 17.8%
WBD 10.4%
DIS 7.7%
Laggards (4w)
PSKY -32.3%
ASTS -30.5%
LBTYA -21.0%
LBTYK -20.5%
GLIBA -15.2%
11 โ–ผ10 Information Technology 150 -1.83% -7.3% -7.3% -2.7% 35.0% Lagging 49 0.7 36% Neutral

Information Technology averaged -1.83% a week over the last 4 weeks against the market's pace, leaving it behind. Relative strength is 99.9 with momentum 96.2, which puts it in the Lagging quadrant. Weekly RSI is 49, it sits +0.7 standard deviations from its own year, and 36% of its 150 members are above their 10-week average โ€” neutral.

  • RANKING: -1.827% average weekly excess return over 4 weeks (sector -1.821% a week against the market's pace)
  • RETURNS: -7.28% 1w ยท -7.28% 4w ยท -2.68% 13w ยท +34.98% 52w
  • EXCESS: -7.31% 1w ยท -7.31% 4w ยท +2.09% 13w ยท +23.21% 52w vs the equal-weighted market
  • QUADRANT: RS-Ratio 99.9, RS-Momentum 96.2 โ€” Lagging. Behind the market and still falling behind. Cheap for a reason, so far.
  • MOMENTUM: weekly RSI 49 (neutral)
  • POSITION: +0.67 standard deviations from its 52-week mean; -7.3% below the 52-week high and 33.3% above the low
  • BREADTH: 36% of 150 members above their own 10-week average (neutral)
  • PRESSURE: Neutral โ€” Nothing extreme in either direction.
Leaders (4w)
PTC 42.0%
ACN 26.7%
P 19.1%
SNPS 18.1%
GWRE 17.0%
Laggards (4w)
APLD -35.8%
AAOI -28.1%
SNDK -27.5%
COHR -26.6%
STX -25.6%
How this is built

Universe. Russell 1000 โˆช S&P 500 constituents (1020 names, 1010 with enough weekly history). Not all of nasdaq_stock: a sector average across 7,692 symbols is dominated by micro-caps that barely trade, so the "sector" would move on names nobody can buy.

Sector composites are equal-weighted. A cap-weighted sector index is largely a chart of its two or three biggest names โ€” it would tell you what the mega-caps did, not whether money rotated into the sector. Built by chaining the mean weekly return, never by averaging price levels.

Weekly, not daily. Rotation is a multi-week phenomenon; daily bars carry noise that is not rotation. Only complete weeks count, so a two-day stub cannot masquerade as a move.

The benchmark is the universe itself, equal-weighted, over the same weeks โ€” not SPY. SPY carries only ~14 months of bars here, too short to normalise a year of relative strength, and it is cap-weighted, which would mix a "what did mega-caps do" signal into every sector's excess return.

Ranking. Average weekly return minus the market's, over the chosen window. Absolute performance would mostly sort sectors by beta.

Two separate questions. The ranking and quadrant answer where is money going; the pressure column answers is it too late. A sector can lead and be overbought at once โ€” those are different facts, so they are not blended into one score.

A screening tool over your own data, not investment advice. Sector composites are equal-weighted averages of index constituents, not investable indices, and the thresholds are conventional defaults rather than backtested parameters.